The October 2024 Freedom Economy Index survey conducted by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, which polled 80,000 small business owners, reveals that 87% would consider closing their businesses if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House in November. This stark contrast in business confidence is emphasized by only 1.2% of respondents expressing similar concerns about closure if former President Donald Trump is elected. The survey results paint a picture of deep-seated economic anxieties and strong political preferences among America's small business community.
The potential impact of the election outcome on small businesses extends beyond mere survival. If Trump wins, 83% of respondents plan to expand and invest in their businesses, with 81% considering hiring more employees. In contrast, a Harris victory would see only 1.1% planning expansion and a mere 0.5% considering new hires. The survey also highlights gender disparities in the current economic climate. Women business owners report greater challenges, with 58% experiencing revenue declines over the past 60 days compared to 50% of male-owned businesses. Furthermore, women entrepreneurs are more likely to consider staff reductions and prepare for increased inflation if Harris wins the presidency.
Economic pessimism is evident in the expectations for the upcoming holiday season. Over half of the surveyed business owners anticipate either declining (28%) or flat (25%) sales compared to the previous year. This gloomy outlook is compounded by a widespread belief that the U.S. is heading towards a recession, with 57.4% of respondents expressing this view. Inflation remains a significant concern, with 8 in 10 small business owners reporting substantial or moderate increases in supplier prices over the past month. The Federal Reserve's handling of the inflation spike has been met with harsh criticism, with 84% of respondents giving Jerome Powell and the Fed an 'F' grade.
The survey results reflect a broader sentiment of uncertainty and caution among small business owners. Hiring trends have stagnated, with 76.6% of respondents neither hiring nor reducing staff, a significant increase from 53.6% a year ago. This hesitation in workforce management underscores the wait-and-see approach many businesses are adopting in light of the upcoming election. Michael Seifert, CEO of PublicSquare, described the survey results as "simply stunning," noting that "Small businesses desperately want to avoid a repeat of the last four years." Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of RedBalloon, added that this effect is visible in the current job market, with employers "holding their breath to see who wins in November."
The survey's findings have significant implications for the broader economy and political landscape. Small businesses are often considered the backbone of the American economy, and their collective sentiment can be a powerful indicator of economic trends and potential policy impacts. The stark divide in business confidence based on election outcomes suggests that the upcoming presidential race could have far-reaching consequences for the nation's economic trajectory. As the election approaches, policymakers and candidates may need to address these concerns to gain the support of the small business community. The survey results underscore the importance of economic policies that foster growth, manage inflation, and create a stable environment for small businesses to thrive, regardless of the election's outcome. Access the full report here.
